Martin Huber and David Imhof ‘Machine Learning with Screens for Detecting Bid-Rigging Cartels’ (2019) International Journal of Industrial Organization

This paper, available here, combines machine-learning techniques with statistical screens computed from the distribution of bids in tenders within the Swiss construction sector to predict collusion through bid-rigging cartels, leading to a correct classification of 84% of bidding processes as collusive or non-collusive out of 584 tenders. The paper is structured follows: Section 2 reviews the data set. The data includes four bid-rigging cartels, comprising 584 tenders in the Swiss road construction sector with 3,799 bids for a market volume of roughly 370 million Swiss francs. For each cartel, the dataset allows one to observe collusive cartel periods as well as competitive post-cartel periods. In doing so, the dataset is ideal for detecting bid-rigging cartels, in that it reflects periods of undisputed collusion and periods of undisputed competition. Collusive agreements were comparable across the four bid-rigging cartels. In all four cartels, the procurement procedure was based on a first-price sealed bid auction. The cartels required two steps: first, to designate…

Alison Jones and William E. Kovacic ‘Identifying Anticompetitive Agreements in the United States and the European Union – Developing a Coherent Antitrust Analytical Framework’ (2017) Antitrust Bulletin 62(2) 254

This is a very substantial paper on the appropriate analytical framework for identifying anticompetitive agreements . It can be found here. The paper focuses on how the debate on rules and standards, and on the balance of Type I and Type II errors, affects the analytical framework for identifying infringing agreements in the US and EU. From their standpoint, these debates have been influential in discussions about how to identify anticompetitive unilateral practices and mergers, but have not been relevant for similar discussions regarding horizontal agreements. Also, from their point of view: “the question of how agreements are to be analysed under both the US and the EU jurisprudence is also unduly opaque; it is frequently difficult to ascertain whether agreements, including joint venture and other horizontal collaboration and distribution agreements, are compatible with the law. In particular, confusion about the role and scope of per se rules, the role and scope of ancillary restraint doctrines, and how competing anti- and…